February 25th, 2012 at 12:27 am
Grinch wins ?home state,? Santorum doesn?t take so well in south?splitting momentum and letting Mitt take the majority of Super Tuesday states. Loving the way it?s turning out at the end of this week. Can?t wait for?
TEAM MITT?S TWO VICTORY TUESDAY ON THE 28TH!!!
criggs Says:February 25th, 2012 at 1:06 am
Things are looking good for Mitt on Tuesday.
Things are looking not so good for Mitt on Super Tuesday.
At this time, there are three Super Tuesday states for which corroborated multiple polling exists, Georgia, Ohio and Oklahoma. And Mitt?s not winning any of them.
Here?s the current Georgia CPSR picture, based on the two latest polls taken from 2/22-23 by Rasmussen and this latest release from Landmark here, with trend indicators based on the two previous surveys taken by Survey USA and Mason-Dixon between 2/1-8:
GEORGIA Composite 2/22-23 Final
1. Gingrich 35.3-37 -3.3-11.7
2. Santorum 24-27.7 +10.3-19.7
3. Romney 16.3-21.7 -5.6-16.7
4. Undecided 10.3-14
5. Paul 5-7.7
As you can see, at the moment, it looks like a narrow Gingrich victory with Santorum close on his heels, the two together claiming the majority of votes. Romney looks headed for a weak also-ran third place finish here.
The next Super Tuesday state for which we have corroborated multiple polling is Ohio. Here?s the current Ohio CPSR picture, based on the two latest surveys taken 2/7-15 by Quinnipiac and Rasmussen, with trend indicators based on the previous survey taken by Quinnipiac on 1/9-16:
OHIO Composite 2/7-15 Final
1. Santorum 38-40.2 +14.8-25.4
2. Romney 24.8-28
3. Gingrich 15.8-17
4. Paul 6-13.2
5. Undecided 7-10.2 -8.6-20.2
As you can see, currently Romney isn?t winning here either; he is scoring a close second behind Santorum, with Santorum probably in the upper thirties and Romney probably somewhere around 25%. The two together are receiving support from over half of the primary electorate. No one else is making it to that top tier.
The third Super Tuesday state for which we have corroborate multiple polling is Oklahoma. Here?s the current Oklahoma CPSR picture, based on the last Sooner and Rasmussen surveys taken between 2/8-21, with trend indicators derived from the previous Sooner poll, taken 11/17-12/16:
OKLAHOMA Composite 2/8-21 Final
1. Santorum 39-44.7 +32-44.7
2. Romney 17.3-22
3. Gingrich 18-23.7 -4.4-19.9
4. Paul 3-11
5. Undecided 7.3-13 -6.1-21.6
Romney and Gingrich are statistically tied, but since Gingrich has trended down from the previous survey whereas Romney is steady, I give Romney the edge and second place to Gingrich?s third place. Similarly Paul and Undecided are statistically tied but, since Undecided has trended down since that previous Sooner poll, I place Undecided beneath Paul.
And once again, as you can see, Romney is not currently headed for a win here. Rather surprisingly, given this is a Southern state where most believed Gingrich would do well, it is once again Santorum rather than Gingrich who seems to be exciting conservatives, even here in so-called Gingrich territory. In fact, Gingrich does not even appear to be running second here. This is illustration, if illustration were needed, of how weak Gingrich appears to have become even with his own base. He?s coming in a weak third behind Romney, with Santorum coming on very strong in first place in the low forties compared to his nearest rival, Romney, who only manages to score a distant second around 20%.
By the way, Killjoy suggests these updates of mine would be ideal on Twitter. I?ve got a Twitter account, but I?m not sure what hash tag to use if I start posting abbreviated versions of this sort of stuff on Twitter. Any neat ideas for a hash tag? Thanks.
Teemu Says:February 25th, 2012 at 2:27 am
5:
This poll shows Romney at 23% and Gingrich at 18% in Oklahoma
http://soonerpoll.com/santorum-leads-in-oklahoma/
Also using 2008 primary ideology distribution to Rasmussen cross tabs made it instead of Gingrich leading 22-18, a tie at 20-20.
In insider advantage Georgia poll had Gingrich 26, Romney 24, Santorum 23. In Rasmussen cross tabs ?certain of who they vote? Santorum is at 25, Romney 21.
In 2008 Romney, McCain and Huckabee were all within 4 points from each other?s and Romney won some Atlanta CDs.
Even when Santorum led in Michigan, he overwhelmingly lost in ?Best chance to beat Obama? cross tabs in Rasmussen poll, when he was exposed, his numbers collapsed, his point was his purity, him being ?true conservative?, if you have to choose between two non-pure candidates, might as well go for the more electable. Santorum is in the ?Best chance to beat Obama? cross tabs 12 points behind Romney and 11 points behind Gingrich in Georgia, expect the debate, and losing Michigan, Arizona and Washington to collapse his numbers.
I?m pretty sure Romney will get delegates from many southern congressional districts, being second, and the winner being below 50% in CD (Georgia, Oklahoma), or in Tennessee?s case below 67%, is enough for 1 CD delegate.
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