While it looked as if Bradshaw was pulling the video-game trick of burning an additional second or two prior to scoring, he told reporters after the game, "I tried to declare myself down and tapped down. My momentum took me into the end zone." When he scored, the Patriots had a minute left and one timeout, which typically amounts to a 0.88 WP. The touchdown actually cost the Giants 0.1 WP and unnecessarily kept the Patriots? hopes alive.
The smartest play of all would've been for Belichick to have allowed the touchdown even earlier. The Patriots certainly could have done so on the play prior to Bradshaw's touchdown run, when he was stopped for a one-yard gain, forcing New England to burn its second timeout. In fact, they probably should have allowed a touchdown as early as the two-minute warning. That?s the point at which the Win Probability of receiving a kickoff down by four or six points (0.23) exceeds the Win Probability of trying to stop the Giants from bleeding the clock dry (0.2). The Patriots would have had almost two minutes, two timeouts, and all four downs available to get a touchdown and steal the win. The lesson: New England didn't lie down soon enough.
Source: http://feeds.slate.com/click.phdo?i=3cf216d1f5010f5874c34ef74cf6a213
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